Everyone talks about “90% accuracy of tipsters”, but nobody bothers to check it. So, I have decided to carry out rather boring experiment to compare Baazi tips from tipsters and the real results Baji by Baji during one week. What is the result? It was quite expected considering the mathematical facts, but my experience was something different. So, here are the results:
The Experiment
I have chosen one of these popular tipsters – the kind of people you can find in Telegram groups and YouTube shorts talking about various Kolkata Fatafat websites. The pattern of his tips is as follows:
- 3 patti tips per Baji.
- 2 single digit tips per Baji.
- 1 “lucky number” of the day.
- 8 Bajis per day, that makes 24 patti tips, 16 digit tips and 1 lucky number per day.
For one week – 168 patti tips, 112 single digit tips and 7 lucky numbers of the day. Definitely, not too small or huge number of tips to notice anything.
The Hits
Here are the results. Nothing extraordinary, but disappointing for many players:
- the rate of patti hits is 4 out of 168, which makes the rate of hitting 2.3 percent.
- the rate of single digit hits is 12 out of 112, making the rate 10.7 percent.
- the “lucky number of the day” hits rate — 1 out of 7.
One should take into consideration the probability of guessing the correct single digit is 10 percent for randomly chosen one. Hence, the guessing of the single digit by our tipster is rather similar to the random behavior of coin flipper.
The Hits That Were Expected
There were 3 occasions when the tipster guessed the patti correctly and the whole community got crazy. Screenshot everywhere. Congratulations of the followers. Even me was under an illusion that maybe he is the expert until I checked his misses for this particular Baji time slot and realized that it is just a survivorship bias.
The Pattern Behind the Guessing
The patterns of the guessing became rather obvious already after several days:
- all patti tips have the sums finishing with 3, 6 or 9 (single digits).
- the numbers seen in the last 3 days appear constantly.
- “bottom” digits repeat the “bottom” digit of the previous Baji.
So, tipster just uses the patterns of the previous week, changing something little bit. It is absolutely natural as the observation, but definitely not the behavior of the expert predicting the future.
What Does It Mean for the Average Player?
Consequently, this experiment has helped me to understand clearly that tipsters are neither frauds, nor magicians, but just chart watchers making their guesses. The results of the guessing of one week of tipsters are absolutely equivalent to the results of the guessing the average player will receive spending 20 minutes analyzing the chart.
Conclusion
In one week of my hard work, I have managed to ruin the whole reputation of the tipster reducing him to mere numbers. These numbers turned out to be really obvious – pure randomness on patti, slightly worse than probability on single digit, and no edge at all. You may follow this tipster if you enjoy the process, but treating their predictions as those of the expert – this is like playing a random game instead of skill one.
